(Photo Credit: Mike Ehrmann)
The Miami HEAT take on the Houston Rockets tonight on the second night of a back-to-back. The HEAT, 5-2, are coming off a defeat in Memphis to the Grizzlies. The Rockets are 3-3 after their win over the Detroit Pistons on Saturday. Here's a quick preview of tonight's action:
1. Is the new Houston James Harden the same as the old Oklahoma City James Harden, just with a higher usage rate?
Couper Moorhead: That about sums it up. Harden has undoubtedly improved in a number of areas – we don’t have large enough sample sizes to really prove this yet – but on average he used about 20 percent of his possessions with the Thunder and that number has jumped to 30 percent with the Rockets, which is everything you expect from a guy going from being a sixth man to the focal point of a team’s offense. He’s gelled reasonably well with Jeremy Lin considering both are primarily pick-and-roll players, but almost a fifth of Harden’s total offense has come in transition so far. He’s one of the most selective and thus efficient shooters in the league, so he’ll find success in the half-court, but the HEAT can’t afford to lose him in the open court.
Also, yada yada yada he didn’t play well in the Finals. Big whoop. It doesn’t matter one bit.
Danny Martinez: I think we’re going to see a little more playmaking out of Harden, but that’s just a hunch on my part. His assist percentage (estimate of percentage of teammate field goals assisted on) is at a career high 23.1 percent, but it’s early. In OKC, Harden had to share ball-handling responsibilities, but now on the Rockets, I suspect Harden will almost always be the primary option and ball handler. As such, he’ll be in position to set teammates up more frequently.
Scoring-wise Harden will still be brutally efficient as long as he doesn’t alter his shot selection too much. In that sense, we’ll see the same old Harden.
2. Odd as it might be to say, could Omer Asik be the toughest big-man test the HEAT have faced?
Couper: In a sense, yes. Asik is among the best offensive rebounders in the league, just as good as players like Kenneth Faried, Kris Humphries and Zach Randolph but he’s also, by far, the best combination of rebounding, size and defense the HEAT will have faced in this young season. In fact, until Dwight Howard gets fully healthy and Kevin Garnett ups his usage to playoff minutes, there might be no better defensive big the HEAT will face this season. It might take him a few possessions to get used to Miami’s spread lineups, but Asik isn’t going to be fooled repeatedly.
Danny: On the defensive end, yes. Offensively, Asik is still very much a work in progress. He’s shown flashes of strong play, but he’s still got a ways to go to match someone like Marc Gasol who the HEAT played last night. But the defense, oh man is that defense great. Asik moves very well for his size and understands all the angles and subtle movements that make a good defender great. He uses his quickness to shut off driving lanes for smaller players and uses his height and wingspan to bother, well, everyone. Add in the fact that he’s an elite rebounder, and Asik strikes fear in any opponent.
There’s an argument to be made that with the Bulls, Asik was the best defensive player on the best defensive team of the last two seasons. The Rockets were smart to recognize this and snatch him up.
3. Any lingering issues from the Memphis loss that could pop up tonight?
Couper: The HEAT had trouble in transition, with backline help on pick-and-rolls and getting out to shooters, but those are all issues the team has had before at one time or another over the past two seasons, and each time the issues have eventually been corrected. Of course, it’s tough to correct those things on the second night of a back-to-back without a practice, but even if they crop up again tonight, that doesn’t mean there is some unfixable flaw in Miami’s defense.
Danny: There aren’t many similarities between the Rockets and Grizzlies, so I’ll focus on the HEAT side of things. The HEAT struggled with turnovers last night. The Grizzlies force more than any team in the league, but many of the HEAT’s miscues were of the “unforced” nature. The Rockets guards have quick hands and will be lurking in the HEAT passing lanes. Avoid that issue, and the HEAT will be in a much better position to win.
4. Miami gave Jeremy Lin a ton of trouble last year, but should we be reading much from that game?
Couper: It wasn’t just a media-driven narrative that Miami completely shut Lin down last year, but just as we can’t expect Harden to play as he did in the NBA Finals, expecting Lin to have much trouble with Miami’s blitzing pick-and-roll defense isn’t fair to him nor is it an expectation properly founded on much evidence. That being said, Mario Chalmers and Norris Cole essentially upped their defense to playoff levels in that game against the Knicks, and if they do so again it could mean, early on, a few backcourt turnovers for Lin and some easy run-outs for the HEAT.
Danny: Nope. But that’s just because reading much from any one game is pretty fruitless. The HEAT held Lin in check once, but that doesn’t mean they’ll do it again. Lin was a good player then and he’s a good player now. One bad game last February will not stop Lin from having success tonight. The HEAT bring the same defensive intensity that they did for the Knicks game, however, will probably stop Lin from lighting up the scoreboard.
5. Where do most of the points come from tonight?
Couper: Only because I have so much respect for Asik’s defense do I say that Chris Bosh probably won’t have a big scoring night unless that mid-range jumper is regularly open, so I’ll go with Dwyane Wade, who had a difficult shooting night last night but now gets Harden as he’s shouldering a much bigger offensive load and probably hasn’t figured out the best balance between offense and defense, yet. The Rockets are going to struggle with their interior defense when Asik is out of the game, so keep an eye on the bench lineups, too.
Danny: The Rockets are currently boasting the best halfcourt defense in the NBA according to Synergy Sports. It’s tough to gauge what we’re looking at after only six games, but it appears the Rockets are susceptible in transition and in the pick-and-roll. If those are the two best options for the HEAT offense, isn’t the best answer LeBron James and Dwyane Wade? Of course now that I say that Chris Bosh will score 35 points, the majority of which will come in the post.
